“Taken with the fact that parts of New Zealand and the Andes have just had a very good season too, with snowfall records tumbling at several locations, does all this good news mean that 2008/2009 will prove to be another bumper ski season? If so, does it follow, as some media commentators have already suggested, that all our previous concerns about global warming can now be dismissed? The answer to the first question is “yes, probably” but to the second one, an emphatic “No”.

All things considered, this probably will be another good season for most Northern Hemisphere ski areas. With so much depth to the pistes in early December, especially in the Alps and Pyrenees where 2-3m on upper slopes is commonplace, the odds are now stacked in favour of another vintage ski season; very few seasons that start this well go on to disappoint.

Unfortunately, this does nothing to suggest that climate change doomsayers have been barking up the wrong tree all along: the scientific evidence remains compelling. Three seasons ago we all wondered if we had seen the last of December skiing in the Alps and questioned the economic viability of low altitude Austrian resorts, yet now skiers are frustrated that more resorts don’t open in November when there is plainly already enough snow. Broadly speaking, two things have worked in our favour. First, the well-understood La Nina pattern in the Pacific has led to lower global temperatures and a more favourable storm pattern, and second, a much less well understood solar minimum (the sunspot cycle) has run longer and deeper than usual. In short, the natural state of flux has briefly conspired to produce two cooling factors that have been strong enough to overcome the warming trend and produce some exceptional ski seasons.

The La Nina pattern has already faded to neutral, and after an unusually long delay, the first of the sunspots of the next solar cycle have begun to cross the solar disk. Our advice is to make the most of the great conditions around the globe before the warming pattern resumes. Failing some enormous volcanic eruption along the lines of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, expect a return to depressingly mild winters sooner rather than later. We would not be surprised to see the early arrival of Spring snow conditions, just as happened in New Zealand a few months ago when some resorts like Mount Lyford lost several metres of snow cover in just a few weeks dashing high hopes for late Spring skiing. In Moscow, a temperature of 9.4 degrees Celsius (49F) was recorded last Saturday at 3am; a new record high for December following the warmest Autumn there for over 100 years. Hopefully this is not a portent of things to come.”

One way each of us could make a difference would be to look at each of our high carbon emitting activities (like driving 8 hours in a v8 to get the fresh) and figuring out ways we can reduce our impact. Moving your own ass up the hill is a good start. In fact, I was brought to backcountry skiing after a life-long pursue of alpine skiing in hopes of getting my fix while being a bit more responsible for my energy consumption. Besides, the powder tends to be fresher when you work for it.

I get deeply offended by dishonesty regarding this issue, and sometimes my emotions get the best of me.

Rather than responding point-by-point to the ‘test’ (I don’t think it deserves a response, and I’m not a climatologist), I suggest you look for the following tactics:

* contradictory statements: global warming exists, but it doesn’t exist
* attempts to redefine terms (so that the propagandist can make factually true claims)
* emphasis on ’science’ and ‘evidence’ and ‘proof’ all of which somehow always lines up with their argument (real science, alas, is quite messy and always filled with caveats)

You’ll notice these strategies come up again and again, regardless of the subject–which is why I mentioned the old smoking propaganda:

1) Deny the problem exists
2) okay, maybe there’s a problem, but our product/behavior isn’t causing it
3) okay, maybe we’re causing it a little bit, but the more significant cause is (distraction)
4) have you considered that there are benefits to smoking/global warming? for example, smokers have a lower rate of alzheimer’s disease. And human civilization has historically undergone significant spans of progress during eras of warmer climate
5) It’s a really complicated issue, isn’t it? We need more studies and evidence before we can decide what to do about this
6) Don’t let others make your choices for you
7) Deny the problem exists