Comments on: More WildSnow Geek News, and what about all those avalanches last winter?

By: David

David — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:39:48 +0000

A lot of good points above.

I thought Karl Klassen’s article about PWL’s was very interesting. Some years the snow itself is trickier.

By: Lou

Lou — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 01:01:22 +0000

Interesting take Rando, thanks. Agree about how folks get lulled by not having problems, when sometimes that’s just because of good luck. Don’t know about the skiing alone part (your rhetorical “provocative” statement), though. Having a partner can make a small mistake inconsequential, while being alone can make that same mistake mean your life. But it’s got to be the right partner.

By: Randonnee

Randonnee — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 20:49:08 +0000

Before releasing my hot air, I will say that I hope that backcountry skiers study the problem, experience the problem- go kick some slabs (safely), and stay out of trouble while enjoying great powder skiing.

My view is that enough knowledge and enough current data is easily available to prevent avalanche entrainment nearly all of the time when combined with self-restraint. Social/ behavioral dynamics are the cause for nearly all recreational avalanche accidents.

As I have written before, my view is that most backcountry winter recreationists appear to have little ability to avoid avalanche entrainment, their doing so is mostly luck. The snowpack is often stable, unknowing individuals travel on avalanche terrain, then to their surprise one day may get caught when true hazard exists. They then may speak of the problem as something that is surprising or mysterious. Since the snowpack is mostly stable, improper conclusions may occur as a result of luck allowing the avoidance of avalanche entrainment, for the most part.

My views are based on considerable avy control experience and backcountry travel. Thousands of days in my life on avy terrain so far confirm my views and conclusions.

Actually, I often feel safer skiing avy terrain with hazard alone since I am not distracted or influenced by those less experienced and therefore make clear and conservative decisions. For those who may comment that I am a fool to do so alone, I would say the decision is practically the same even if one has partners. In other words, if one is entrained in a significant avalanche it may matter little if one is alone or if someone is there to share the horror of your death. Clearly, surviving and being rescued does not fit into the previous provocative statement, I make that statement for illustrative purposes.

In closing, I will wish for all to make excellent, safe decisions while skiing many days of excellent powder snow!

By: lotsofsnow

lotsofsnow — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:10:26 +0000

I was thinking it had something to do with the generous snowcover over all of North America. Didn’t the 2007-08 winter season have the largest (most widespread) snow cover in North America since the 1960′s? In many areas, it was also an amazing year for low elevation (i.e. easier access) skiing, with many lines being skied that have been unskiable for long periods of time. In addition to this, the Northwest had unusual weather and snowpack, and as a result, unusual avalanches and a large number of fatalities for that region.

Just some other thoughts.

By: Tyler

Tyler — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 16:18:36 +0000

I would caution against reading too much into year-to-year increases in fatalities/injuries. While there are undoubtedly more people in the backcountry than before–and yes, many of them are doing stupid things–it wouldn’t necessarily be reflected in avy statistics. A very similar debate to this one exists commercial fishing and the merchant marine in regards to risk and injury, but talking about things on a year-to-year basis (rather than a long term trend) skews perception. One or two large fisher/processor boats sink and all of a sudden the fatality rate is 50% higher than the year before. But, is the job really any more dangerous? Not really, but through random chance and bad luck and poor decision making by crews and it looks as though it is. I think the same logic can be applied here; compositing avy deaths from all around the west (including different variables of weather, snowpack, moisture, wind….you get the point) into a single statistic is to aggregate something that isn’t necessarily appropriate and very hard to interpret.

Anyhow, sorry everyone to get all nerdish. As a “stats-nerd” and a backcountry skier i tend to go off on tangents on topics like this. Talking about this is far more pleasing than actually getting work done.